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Global Minimum Tax: New Rule, Challenges, and ASEAN’s Response

The construction industry is expected to recover over the next 3 years, with total construction spending forecast to rise by 4.5-5.0% in 2021 and then by 5.0-5.5% in 2022-2023. A major driver will be public-sector spending on infrastructure megaprojects, especially in the Eastern Economic Corridor, where investment in government-backed projects will encourage crowding-in of private-sector investment (e.g., in industrial estates). Beyond this, the gradual recovery of the Thai economy will also support greater investment in residential accommodation and commercial properties. And, there will be new opportunities in neighboring countries as their governments continue to improve national infrastructure in response to continued economic growth and urbanization.

In 2021, housing sales in the 6 major provinces will likely remain flat or drop slightly from 2020 levels as COVID-19 continues to hurt the economy. In response to the prevailing weak business conditions, developers have been trying to run down existing stocks of unsold properties. Looking at 2022 and 2023, conditions should improve along with stronger economic growth, while government stimulus measures will help to lift consumer purchasing power. But there are still several headwinds weighing on the property market. Household debt would continue to trend up, which would reduce affordability and simultaneously lead to tighter credit conditions. In addition, demand for housing has been mostly absorbed in 2020, when developers had cut prices to run down inventories, reflected in the mild drop in house ownership transfers. Also, demand from foreigners will continue to be capped by restrictions on international travel.

The COVID-19 pandemic has severely hurt the tourism and hotel industry but there is hope the pandemic will end soon following mass vaccination programs. However, structural, deeper, and possibly permanent, changes in global megatrends and travel habits will challenge the industry to transform to meet the demands of travelers from different age groups. The tourism sector will be influenced by increasingly individualized travel needs, greater application of new technology in business models and processes, and higher profile for health and hygiene. Against this changing landscape and travel preferences, businesses need to adjust their operations if they want to sustain profit margins. The repertoire of strategies deployed in response to these changes will extend to seeking new business opportunities related to tourism and building new business relations with other players in the tourism supply chain, including those at the local community level.

Krungsri Research Flash

การเพิ่มขึ้นของอัตราเงินเฟ้อจะส่งผลกระทบต่อครัวเรือนไทยอย่างไร? เป็นคำถามสำคัญในยามที่ระบบเศรษฐกิจกำลังเผชิญกับการเร่งตัวขึ้นของอัตราเงินเฟ้อในระยะข้างหน้า

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Krungsri Research Flash

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