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The aging society trend is one of the mainstream and a worldwide phenomenon including Thailand

A recovery in the CLMVIP region is supported by three principal factors: (i) the implementation of economic stimulus packages that have both fiscal and monetary aspects, with infrastructure spending playing a particularly important role; (ii) the boost given to export industries by cyclical recovery in the global economy; and (iii) the strengthening trend to regionalization. Nevertheless, although similar factors are at play across the region in support of recovery, the pace of economic recovery is different between countries.

Thai rice outputs are expected to contract through 2024 from the effects of the El Niño. However, total outputs will trend upwards through 2025 and 2026 due to the transition to La Niña conditions in the third quarter of 2024 that will boost rainfall. Domestic consumption from 2024 to 2026 will be boosted by the recovery of the restaurant, hotel, and food processing industries.

Private hospital business is expected to enjoy average annual growth of 10-13% from 2019 to 2021. Business expansion will be underpinned by structural changes in Thai demographics, including the aging society, continuing urbanization, and the ongoing growth of the middle classes. In addition, increasing health-awareness trend globally with personal health and wellness will also help to support sectoral growth.

The growth trend will slow down between 2020 and 2022 due to the slowdown in consumer purchasing power following the economic conditions.

Thai medical devices sector should see average annual growth of 8.0-10.0%. This outlook is supported by: (i) government policy that aims to establish Thailand as both a medical hub and a regional center for the export of medical devices by 2020; (ii) rising rates of ill-health in the Thai population (especially from heart disease, stroke, cancer and diabetes), which, together with the steady ageing of the population, is fueling increased demand for the use of modern, high-tech diagnostic equipment; (iii) the increasing trend for non-Thais (both expatriates and medical tourists) to use Thai medical services as confidence in the standard of care rises; and (iv) the plans put in place by healthcare providers to expand and/or build new hospitals.

In 2021, housing sales in the 6 major provinces will likely remain flat or drop slightly from 2020 levels as COVID-19 continues to hurt the economy. In response to the prevailing weak business conditions, developers have been trying to run down existing stocks of unsold properties. Looking at 2022 and 2023, conditions should improve along with stronger economic growth, while government stimulus measures will help to lift consumer purchasing power. But there are still several headwinds weighing on the property market. Household debt would continue to trend up, which would reduce affordability and simultaneously lead to tighter credit conditions. In addition, demand for housing has been mostly absorbed in 2020, when developers had cut prices to run down inventories, reflected in the mild drop in house ownership transfers. Also, demand from foreigners will continue to be capped by restrictions on international travel.

Depressed conditions have extended from 2020 into 2021 for the office rentals business, and the industry is continuing to battle against the stiff headwinds generated by this year’s severe outbreak of Covid-19 and the impacts of this on the economy. The pressure on costs that this has generated has then forced businesses to trim back on expenses, lay off staff and reduce their office sizes, but in 2022 and 2023, demand is forecast to make its way slowly out of this trough as the effects of the vaccine rollout begin to be felt, the economy rebounds, and the government moves forward with infrastructure projects, especially those connected with communications. The net effect of this will be to spur developers to step up their investments in new office space and/or in renovations of older buildings both within the CBD and in less central parts of the BMR. However, major developers’ investment plans indicate that over the period 2021-2023, growth in supply is likely to outpace what will be only somewhat weak recovery in demand, and so over the next 3 years, the occupancy rate will trend downwards.

Bright outlook for new investment cycle driven by three visible trends: (i) the Private Investment Index showed the strongest rise in almost three years; (ii) industrial capacity utilization has finally returned to pre-pandemic levels; and (iii) there are more industries expressing confidence.

การท่องเที่ยวถือเป็นธุรกิจที่มีความสำคัญอย่างมากต่อเศรษฐกิจไทย ในช่วงเกือบสองปีที่ผ่านมาผู้ประกอบการในธุรกิจท่องเที่ยวและธุรกิจ