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The impacts of increases to the price of sugar on supply chains and the wider economy

The EV price war in Thailand began in 2022 due to intensifying market competition, forcing EV manufacturers to cut production costs to maintain profitability.

Over the period 2018-2020, the supply of sugar to world markets will tend to lead to an increase in stocks and this will prevent significant price rises

Over 2023 to 2025, strengthening economic conditions both at home and in export markets will help improve the outlook for the Thai sugar industry, especially in 2024 and 2025. Consumption will be lifted by the recovery in the tourism sector, which will add to demand from downstream industries like food and beverage manufacturers. On the other side, output will benefit from improved sugarcane outputs, thanks to the favorable climatic conditions and the positive effect of price guarantees on the total area of sugarcane under cultivation.

Krungsri Research sees the Thai sugar industry contracting through 2024. Although the domestic market receives the positive impacts of recovery in the tourism sector and an improving outlook for the restaurant business, the contracted exports due to the effects of drought on agricultural outputs offset those positive impacts. However, the situation will improve over 2025 and 2026 thanks to the emergence of La Niña conditions and thus of a more favorable climate; the high price of sugar and the incentive effects of this on supply growth;

The airline industry can look forward to solid rates of growth in 2023-2025. Both domestic and international passenger numbers will rise in step with overall recovery in the tourism sector, while on the freight side of the industry, the volume of cargo moved by air will be boosted by the post-pandemic rebound in economic activity. In addition, price competition would be intensifying amid expenses from business rehabilitation, while costs tend to increase in line with higher energy prices.

Thai oil refining sector is expected to see continuing growth over the next three years domestic

There is uncertainty in the global oil market this year. Demand for oil will tumble as economic activities have been crippled by the coronavirus outbreak

in 2026 and 2027, biodiesel consumption is expected to stabilize or increase slightly, with an average annual growth of 1.5–2.5%

Houthi escalation in the Red Sea intensifies the war, while Thailand’s exports are set to slow amid Middle East tensions.