Deposits
|
Super El Niño and the Risks of Extreme Drought and Flooding in 2026–2027
|
|
Krungsri Research Digest
|
|
In 2020, Thailand is at greater risk of severe drought than in 2016, with clear signs of Weak El Niño
|
|
Industry Horizon October 2026
|
|
Krungsri Research raises Thailand’s 2026 GDP growth forecast to 2.1%, driven by investment momentum and improved policy continuity, although external uncertainties and El Niño remain key downside risks.
|
|
The market for agricultural machinery contracted in 2023 on a combination of the onset of El Niño and the resulting drop in farm yields, and high levels of household debt. However, conditions should improve over 2024 to 2026, and the market is expected to swing back to average annual growth of 3.0-4.0%
|
|
Domestic rice outputs are likely to dip slightly over 2023-2025 due to the likely emergence of El Niño conditions, and by high operating costs. Exports are also forecast to expand on a combination of rising purchasing power in overseas markets and continuing worries over food security due to the extension of the war in Ukraine
|
|
The cassava industry will face a challenging environment over the period 2024 to 2026. Supply will tend to contract as the effects of the El Niño-induced drought take their toll on domestic outputs, and these problems will be further compounded by the spread of cassava mosaic disease and a shortage of cassava stem cuttings for use in planting. However, demand from downstream industrial consumers, especially the food processing and ethanol industries, will strengthen due to the ending of the pandemic, the reopening of the country,
|
|
Thai rice outputs are expected to contract through 2024 from the effects of the El Niño. However, total outputs will trend upwards through 2025 and 2026 due to the transition to La Niña conditions in the third quarter of 2024 that will boost rainfall. Domestic consumption from 2024 to 2026 will be boosted by the recovery of the restaurant, hotel, and food processing industries.
|
|
During 2027–2029, domestic sales volume of ready-to-eat (RTE) food is expected to grow by an average of 2.8–3.8% annually,
|