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The pharmaceuticals industry will enjoy favorable business conditions through the next three years with the forecast 6.0-7.0% annual growth in the domestic sales value in 2025-2027. Sales will be lifted by an expansion in case numbers for non-communicable diseases (NCDs) and infections with notifiable conditions, growth in emerging and reemerging diseases

Krungsri Research’s forecast is that in the period 2019-2021, the value of pharmaceuticals distributed to the domestic market is expected to grow by 4.2-4.6%. This outlook is based on: (i) rising rates of illness, especially of non-communicable conditions; (ii) growing number of aging population; (iii) the extension of universal healthcare coverage to essentially all of the population, which has led to a steady increase in expenditure on medicines by hospitals; and (iv) the expansion in medical tourism and the rise in the number of foreign patients seeking treatment in Thai hospitals. Meanwhile, as regards the value of exports, the possibility now exists to expand markets within the ASEAN zone following Thailand’s admission to the Pharmaceutical Inspection Co-operation Scheme (PIC/S) and Thai manufacturers’ having achieved the ‘Good Manufacturing Practice’ (GMP) standards. These developments have also helped to strengthen consumer confidence in Thai-made pharmaceuticals.

The value of the domestic market for pharmaceuticals is expected to grow by 4.5-5.0% in 2022 relative to the 2021 figure, thanks to the easing of fears about COVID-19 and the return of the Thai economy to somewhere close to its normal level, with the subsequent rebound in growth then feeding into stronger spending power. Over 2023 to 2025, the market is expected to continue to grow thanks to the likely ongoing rise in incidences of chronic non-communicable diseases (NCDs), the extension of universal health coverage programs to cover the whole of the Thai population, the increasing number of foreign patients seeking treatment in Thai hospitals,

Growth in the value of the domestic market for pharmaceuticals is forecast to slip to just 2.5% in 2021. This is largely due to Thailand’s 3rd wave of Covid-19, which has caused a drop off in hospital visits for those seeking treatment for less serious conditions. However, over 2022 and 2023, annual growth in the market should accelerate to 3.5% on: (i) a rising concern among Thais over personal health and wellness, itself partly a side-effect of the Covid-19 pandemic; (ii) the aging of Thai society, which is driving an increase in the number of individuals needing treatment for chronic non-communicable diseases; (iii) the broad coverage provided by the Universal Health Coverage scheme; and (iv) the return of foreign patients to Thai hospitals.

Domestic drug sales in 2020 are likely to expand at a low 2.0-3.0% as a result of the number of hospital admissions, both Thai and foreign

Thailand’s pharmaceutical industry is expected to expand during 2026–2028, driven by population aging, the rising prevalence of non-communicable diseases (NCDs), and broader access to healthcare

The pharmaceutical industry includes modern medicine. And medical supplies used in the diagnosis and treatment of all types of diseases

Global: Hidden headwinds and rising risks

The Thailand Industry Outlook report evaluates the attractiveness of selected Thai industries to complement the credit evaluation process for the bank’s clients over the next 3 years (2021-2023). The report considers a range of factors that would influence each industry over this period. These include the broad competitive environment (e.g. trends in trade and the global economy, structural changes occurring at global level, and economic outlook for Thailand), as well as sector-specific variables (e.g. industry structure, Thai industrial competitiveness, and ongoing regulatory changes). We look at the players’ ability to cope with uncertainties, generate revenues, and service debt.