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Hotel business in downtown Bangkok continues to grow through the period 2019-2021 in line with growth in the number of visitors to the capital, especially to the city center. It is forecast that in these three years, the number of foreign and domestic tourists staying in hotels in Bangkok will rise by 4% and 7% per year, respectively, and this will then help to lift the occupancy rate for hotel accommodation in downtown Bangkok to 79-80%, compared to a national occupancy rate of 71.5-72.5%.
The hotel business will enjoy a steadily improving outlook over the next three years. However, recovery will remain only sluggish through 2022 given the limited number of tourist arrivals, and in particular the continuing depressed state of the Chinese market, where the government is still strictly implementing Zero-COVID policy. In addition, the global economy is facing significant headwinds as a result of the outbreak of Russia-Ukraine war, and this too is weighing on the industry. Nevertheless, the number of foreign arrivals should build at an accelerating rate through 2023 and 2024, and by 2025, the industry is expected to return to its pre-COVID level of 38-40 million arrivals annually.
Following weak operations in 2020, hoteliers will continue to see depressed conditions through 2021. The first shoots of recovery will start to break through from the end of this year and throughout 2022 and 2023, but it could take at least 4 years for foreign tourist arrivals to return to pre-COVID level. Against this backdrop, domestic tourism will recover faster, partly thanks to ongoing policy efforts by the government to stimulate demand. By the latter half of 2021, the worldwide rollout of vaccination programs will start to translate into an uptick in foreign tourist arrivals, helped by a recovering global economy and long-term growth potential in the Thai tourism industry. However, in the post-pandemic environment, players in the tourism and hotel industries will need to move rapidly to overhaul their operations onto a more sustainable footing by accelerating the adoption of modern technology, placing greater emphasis on public health and hygiene, and developing their understanding of varied and diverse consumer needs and using this knowledge to offer customized travel experiences.
The Thai hotel industry is expected to continue expanding over 2026-2028, supported by a gradual recovery in international tourist arrivals,
The hotel business is expected to continue growing well during 2019-2021, with foreign and Thai tourists expected to expand
The COVID-19 pandemic has severely hurt the tourism and hotel industry but there is hope the pandemic will end soon following mass vaccination programs. However, structural, deeper, and possibly permanent, changes in global megatrends and travel habits will challenge the industry to transform to meet the demands of travelers from different age groups. The tourism sector will be influenced by increasingly individualized travel needs, greater application of new technology in business models and processes, and higher profile for health and hygiene. Against this changing landscape and travel preferences, businesses need to adjust their operations if they want to sustain profit margins. The repertoire of strategies deployed in response to these changes will extend to seeking new business opportunities related to tourism and building new business relations with other players in the tourism supply chain, including those at the local community level.
The hotel industry will continue to see improving conditions over 2024 to 2026, helped by ongoing government support for the industry and the annual foreign arrivals returning close to their pre-pandemic level of 38-40 million by 2025. Meanwhile, domestic tourists are also expected to be making 200 million trips annually by 2025
The office rental market is expected to remain under pressure in 2026 due to a persistent oversupply that continues to outpace rental demand.
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