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in 2017, the sector had a combined value of around USD 2.15 trn and 950 bn liters of drinks in consumption

In the period 2019-2021, the domestic market for beverages is expected to see low levels of growth even as the Thai economy expands

Over 2022 to 2024, overall income for the Thai beverage industry will rise in step with the improving outlook for the domestic market since this is the industry’s main source of income. The continuing impact of COVID-19 on domestic consumer spending power meant that the value of goods distributed to the market in 2021 continued the decline that began in 2020, but over the next 3 years, domestic sales will rebound to growth on the back of economic recovery and a revival in the tourism sector

The Thai beverage industry is heavily focused on the domestic market, as 79% of output is consumed within the country. Over 2024 to 2026, however, output should edge up at an average annual rate of 1.5-2.5%, with the domestic market enjoying growth of 3.0-4.0% per year,

Output by the beverage industry is forecast to rise at an average rate of 3.5-4.5% annually over 2025-2027. Domestic sales volume will expand at a similar rate, helped by: (i) growth in the economy, especially in the tourism sector, (ii) steadily rising temperatures; (iii) ongoing urbanization, growth in convenience store networks, and expansion in platform delivery services, and (iv) the development of a wide number of new health related products

Over 2026–2028, total beverage production volume in Thailand is forecast to grow at an average rate of 1.8–2.8% per year

Over 2023 to 2025, strengthening economic conditions both at home and in export markets will help improve the outlook for the Thai sugar industry, especially in 2024 and 2025. Consumption will be lifted by the recovery in the tourism sector, which will add to demand from downstream industries like food and beverage manufacturers. On the other side, output will benefit from improved sugarcane outputs, thanks to the favorable climatic conditions and the positive effect of price guarantees on the total area of sugarcane under cultivation.

Krungsri Research sees the Thai sugar industry contracting through 2024. Although the domestic market receives the positive impacts of recovery in the tourism sector and an improving outlook for the restaurant business, the contracted exports due to the effects of drought on agricultural outputs offset those positive impacts. However, the situation will improve over 2025 and 2026 thanks to the emergence of La Niña conditions and thus of a more favorable climate; the high price of sugar and the incentive effects of this on supply growth;

In 2026, the Thai sugar industry is projected to expand, supported by increased production due to the onset of the La Niña phenomenon

Krungsri Research now projects the outbreak would pose a negative impact to the Indonesian economy of 3.5 ppt, at the same magnitude as Singapore