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Impact of Trade War 2.0 on Thailand’s Industrial and Service Sectors Round One

Operators of mass transit systems will enjoy an improving outlook over 2024 to 2026 thanks to domestic economic growth and the positive effects of this on consumer purchasing power. At the same time, ongoing expansion to the metro network will help to stimulate greater private-sector investment in both residential and commercial property in areas newly served by the mass transit system, adding further to potential demand for travel services

Mass transit services are a relatively stable and solid structure than other services because they are typically in the form of public-private partnerships providing a necessary public utility. Moving forward, income should grow as demand for public transport partly displaces use of private vehicles, a process that will be accelerated by the expansion of integrated rail transport networks. Alongside this, demand will be further lifted by the fading of the COVID-19 pandemic, which is bringing with it recovery in domestic and international tourist markets and in social and economic activity more broadly.

Over the period 2022-2024, the road freight transport industry is expected to enjoy growth rates that will average 3-5% per year. The industry will benefit from growth in manufacturing and trade, and from the increase in public-sector spending on infrastructure construction and the likely expansion in agricultural outputs. Beyond this, players will also gain from the ongoing strengthening of border/cross-border trade and the continuing rise in the popularity of e-commerce.

From 2023-2025, sea freight operations should enjoy a brighter outlook, thanks to steadily improving global and Thai economic conditions and income from freight charges that will remain above its pre-COVID level. Meanwhile, the supply of new ships will expand only slowly.

During 2023-2025, overall revenue to this business has a potential to grow further for every group of segments especially for digital services business that is forecast to be a main driver of overall performance.

During 2021-2023, overall revenue of digital services and software industry is forecast to rise at an annual average of 10.5%. The industry will be buoyed by the widespread embrace of private sector’s strategies centered on digital transformation1/ by companies looking to meet consumer’s specific demand. In addition, the emergence of a post-pandemic ‘new normal’ is also likely to result in a greater share of business online transactions. However, new players will be increasingly attracted into the market to develop a range of new platforms, competition will stiffen.

During 2026-2028, total revenue for Thailand’s food and beverage service business is projected to expand by an annual average rate of 2.9-3.9%.

Year 2019 - 2021 Krungsri Research assesses mobile phone service business has the potential to generate continuous revenue growth