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Global: Despite trade truce, US tariff inception pressures global growth
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ASEAN: Fate is swayed by the erratic forces of U.S. tariffs and China’s presence.
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China and US lead global recovery; Eurozone activity lose momentum Japan rebounds at a slow pace
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In 2Q20, US GDP shrank by 32.9% QoQ annualized, the largest contraction since 1947, reflecting the devastating impact of the lockdown
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Global: Struggling to escape the economic currents
US: Indicators show economy is improving but new cases are rising again and could lead to another lockdown
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US: Growing consumption contributes to demand-pull inflation; Fed is shifting to a more hawkish tone with aggressive rate hikes; looming risk of an economic downturn.
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US: March rate hike is a done deal, possibly five hikes this year, given more persistent inflation, rapidly-rising wages, and a solid job market.
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US: Robust domestic spending and high inflation risks suggest Fed would keep pace of policy tightening; more aggressive move could increase risk of a hard landing.
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Global: Lower probability of recession but there are lingering risks / Thailand: Discouraging 4Q23 GDP data and weaker-than-expected growth momentum prompted us to revise down 2024 economic forecast
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Global: The storm has passed, but the danger has not
US: Economy gains momentum, raising hopes for a stronger recovery ahead.
Eurozone: Slow economic activity and vaccine rollout could cap economic recovery.
China: Urban residents still spending cautiously, slowing down the recovery in domestic consumption.
Japan: Improving exports and manufacturing sector could ease latest COVID-19 impact.
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